A Research Professor at the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs, Olufemi Otubanjo, has raised fresh concerns over Nigeria’s worsening security situation, warning that the growing internationalisation of insurgency across the Sahel region is fuelling terrorism, banditry and kidnapping within the country.
Speaking during an interview on Frontline, a current affairs programme on Eagle 102.5 FM, Ogun State, the international relations scholar said Nigeria’s security challenges have evolved beyond the domestic threat once posed primarily by Boko Haram and are now increasingly connected to wider regional conflicts stretching across West and Central Africa.
According to him, insurgents and armed criminal groups displaced by military operations and conflicts in countries such as Sudan, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso are finding their way into Nigeria, exploiting weakly governed spaces and porous borders to establish criminal networks.
Professor Otubanjo noted that insecurity in Nigeria can no longer be viewed in isolation, arguing that instability across the Sahel has created a complex security environment that transcends national boundaries.
“The problem is that insurgency has become so international. It used to be Boko Haram alone, but it looks like insurgents are running away from different parts of the world, including Sudan. We are beginning to see Sudanese in Nigeria as bandits, coming to kidnap us,” he said.
He explained that vast ungoverned territories and areas with limited state presence continue to provide safe havens for criminal elements who can launch attacks and retreat before security agencies respond effectively.
According to the professor, the challenge highlights the need for stronger border management, intelligence sharing and regional security cooperation.
Beyond armed conflict, Otubanjo identified climate change as a significant but often overlooked contributor to insecurity across the region.
He said desertification, environmental degradation and declining agricultural productivity have displaced thousands of people across the Sahel, forcing many to migrate southward in search of survival.
According to him, shrinking farmlands, advancing desert sands and worsening economic conditions are creating new pressures that often fuel migration, social tensions and insecurity.
“A lot of people have lost their homes and livelihoods because desert encroachment is taking over their communities and farmlands. They are moving down in search of opportunities,” he explained.
The professor stressed that many migrants arriving in southern parts of Nigeria should not automatically be viewed as terrorists, noting that a significant number are simply economic migrants escaping poverty, unemployment and hopelessness.
While acknowledging public frustration over persistent kidnappings, terrorism and bandit attacks, Otubanjo maintained that it would be unfair to conclude that the Federal Government and security agencies are doing nothing to address the crisis.
He argued that counterinsurgency operations are often lengthy and complex processes that require sustained military action, intelligence gathering and regional collaboration.
“There is a challenge of security in Nigeria, no doubt about it. We have not overcome it, but that is not to say government is not doing what is necessary,” he stated.
The professor added that security victories are rarely immediate and warned against expecting instant results from ongoing operations.
He also paid tribute to Nigerian military personnel engaged in counterterrorism operations, noting that many soldiers continue to make significant sacrifices in the line of duty.
“Soldiers are dying. We must give them credit for the work they are doing and continue to pray that they succeed in getting us out of this situation,” he said.
Responding to suggestions that strained relations between Nigeria and some military-led governments in the Sahel have worsened regional insecurity, Otubanjo rejected the claim.
He noted that countries such as Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso are themselves facing severe insurgency threats and remain actively engaged in counterterrorism efforts.
According to him, multinational security arrangements involving regional governments continue to play a critical role in combating terrorism across the region.
“Niger has insurgency challenges on multiple fronts. Mali is fighting insurgency. Burkina Faso has its own security problems. These countries are also battling terrorism,” he explained.
Despite security concerns, Otubanjo described Nigeria’s foreign policy record as one of the country’s greatest strengths.
He argued that Nigeria continues to enjoy cordial relations with major global powers and remains one of the few countries that maintains friendly ties across competing geopolitical blocs.
According to him, diplomatic disagreements should not be mistaken for hostility, noting that differences between nations are a normal part of international relations.
“Nigeria is one of the greatest countries in the world in terms of having no enemies. We maintain peaceful relations with almost everyone,” he said.
The professor specifically described relations between Nigeria and the United States as fundamentally positive, despite occasional policy differences.
Otubanjo’s remarks underscore the growing recognition among security experts that Nigeria’s security challenges are increasingly linked to broader regional and global developments.
As conflicts, migration pressures and climate-related disruptions continue to reshape the Sahel, analysts argue that Nigeria’s long-term security strategy will require stronger regional cooperation, improved border security, economic resilience and sustained investment in intelligence-driven operations.
For policymakers, the warning serves as a reminder that the country’s security future may depend not only on domestic interventions but also on how effectively it responds to rapidly evolving threats beyond its borders.
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