As of Monday, March 9, 2026, Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector is experiencing significant volatility, with Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) retail prices exceeding N1,000 per litre in multiple regions. Analysts attribute the surge to a combination of government deregulation policies and rising global crude oil prices, spurred by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) confirmed that the price fluctuations are market-driven, rather than a result of government interference. Under the fully deregulated regime, pump prices respond to supply and demand forces, including global crude oil costs and foreign exchange volatility.
According to the authority, while prices have increased, product availability has improved nationwide, effectively eliminating the long fuel queues that characterized the subsidy era.
The role of the Dangote Refinery has emerged as both a stabilizer and contributor to pricing pressures. On March 8, 2026, the refinery raised its gantry price to N995 per litre, citing global crude volatility with oil approaching $100 per barrel due to disruptions in shipping and production in the Gulf region.
The gantry adjustment triggered a secondary nationwide price hike within 48 hours, with some independent marketers in remote states such as Gombe reportedly selling petrol as high as N1,250 per litre. Market observers note that these developments signal a new era in Nigeria’s downstream sector, where deregulation and global market forces directly influence consumer pricing.
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